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substrate attestation · live · v0

The map of maps — measured on the metal

Every commit to this repository writes a substrate measurement to a per-SHA JSON record. The cache-tier latency, the ballistic-gate speed, and the full 12×12 verifier walk land in the stream below — measured unprivileged on the host that produced each commit. Read this page as the receipt the FIM patent claims silicon will issue at line rate; today it is software-prosthesis on consumer laptops, and that is already enough to settle the discriminating questions an underwriter or examiner needs answered.

measurements
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hosts
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earliest
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latest
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Cache-tier baselines

Mean nanoseconds per dependent load at each tier, with σ. Sharp separation between tiers is the discriminating signal — when a commit shifts a workload across a tier boundary, the change is visible at this scale, no privileged counter access required.

TierMean ns/accessσ nsn samples
L10.000.000
L20.000.000
SLC0.000.000
DRAM0.000.000

Drift zones — measurements > 3σ from baseline

Per-host, per-tier z-score against that host's own rolling mean. A zone is a commit whose substrate signal moved outside the stationary band — the chip noticed the change. v0 surfaces single- host zones; cross-host correlation arrives with the v1 pilot.

No zones above the 3σ threshold yet — need more samples to establish per-host baselines.

Priced loss — the number, and what it isn't yet

Expected loss = frequency × severity. The frequency half is measured, twice, from two different corpora, read from src/data/actuary-ledger.json and data/pmu/sealed-calibration.json at build time — never typed onto this page.

live breach rate (recomputed 2026-08-26)
8.8%
34/387 breaches · CI [6.4%, 12.0%] · σ 1.64 · strike 4.668% · rate-on-line 1410.8 bps
sealed dogfood rate (pre-registered 2026-07-24)
15.4%
95% CI [10.9%, 21.3%] · sealed = true

The two numbers disagree and we publish both. The sealed rate is pre-registered and small; the live rate is larger, post-hoc, and recomputed on every commit. Neither supersedes the other — we have not chosen a favourite. What separates a real scope departure from an artefact of a badly declared scope — the false-alarm rate an underwriter actually prices against — is unmeasured. The full accounting, including what we refuse to claim and why, is in docs/underwriting/false-alarm-rate.md. This page states the frequency; it does not claim an underwriter has accepted it.

Recent measurements

Newest first. Each row is a per-commit reading the post-commit hook wrote next to that commit's diff.

No measurements in the stream yet.

What this page does not yet claim

  • Cross-deployment distribution data for pricing. The drift zones above are single-host z-scores. Multi-host correlation — the actuarial-grade distribution any reinsurance treaty would price against — is the v1 pilot product, co-built with the first underwriter to commit. The named deferral is itself the discipline.
  • Raw PMU counter reads. The §0a spec amendment names cache-tier latency as the v0 canonical signal; raw counters (perf_event_open on Linux, kperf on macOS) are v1 enrichment. The latency curve is isomorphic to the miss-count distribution for pricing purposes.
  • Sub-process attribution. Per-syscall coordinate attribution (spec §5b) requires DTrace on macOS, which is effectively gone post-Big Sur. v0 attributes by commit-touched file; per-script attribution arrives with the v1 wrapper.

Stream generated 2026-10-15 00:08:39 UTC · v0 storage = file-based ·source

Sufficient for: where it landed, re-runnable from the commit: same bytes, same hash. NOT sufficient for: whether the work was good, which is undecidable (Rice, 1953); nothing here claims it.

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